In the last few weeks, the tech industry has been buzzing with speculation that Microsoft  's next OS release, Longhorn, will not be ready for its planned 2006 unveiling.
If the OS is put off until 2007, some competitors could win more profits, but many analysts say that software and hardware partners will face the most serious challenges and could end up losing more than they anticipated.
This is not the first time Longhorn has had rumors about delay swirling around it, but because some of those rumors have come true, many in the industry are waiting to see if 2006 really will be the year of Longhorn -- or if they need to take their business elsewhere.
Competitive Edge
If Longhorn is put off by a few quarters, the most likely candidates to win an edge over Microsoft will be the developers of alternative operating systems and their vendors, such as Novell, Red Hat, Apple and others.
"The open-source world would be ecstatic to have a Longhorn delay," said Yankee Group analyst Laura DiDio. "They'll see it as Linux having two years to get its ducks lined up in a row, and more time to erode Microsoft's market share."
Although other operating systems have very limited adoption when compared to Microsoft's tight clamp on the market, a Longhorn delay could create an opening.
"At this point, Microsoft has to be very careful about keeping its customers informed and sticking to a roadmap," said DiDio. "Whenever there's a delay of any kind, you have to worry about competition."
Skipped Holiday
While competitors might benefit, Microsoft's partners would probably suffer, according to META Group analyst Steve Kleynhans.
"If there's another delay, I think the PC industry en masse would descend on Redmond like a lynch mob," he said. "It needs to hit the streets before the end of 2006 for the holiday season, and companies already have that in their sales projections."
Even if Longhorn is pushed back by a quarter or two, it would hurt partners because they would have missed an important selling season, noted Kleynhans.
"Microsoft is highly motivated to make sure Longhorn ships in a timely fashion, so people don't have to postpone the rate at which revenue comes in," he said. "That means they'll probably start trimming things out of the OS just to get it out the door." (continued...)
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